DETERMINAN FERTILITAS DI INDONESIA

Syahmida Syahbuddin Arsyad, Septi Nurhayati

Abstract


Fertility experiences stagnation during the last 10 years (2.6 children) and it did not reach the target of national medium-term development plan 2015 for 2.1 children. Meanwhile, the use of contraception increased less than one percent, and mortality rate of children under five years old only slightly declined. This might be because Population and Family Planning Program is not a priority. This paper aims to analyze direct and/or indirect factors that significantly cotribute to children born alive based on IDHS 2012. The IDHS 2012 data collect 45.607 women aged 15-49 years as sample units. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics for univariate, bivariate (chi-square), and multivariate (multiple linear regression). Twenty-four variables have a significant relationship to the children born alive, eleven of the variables have strong effect to the children born alive. By taking into account control variables, the eleven variables contribute 66 per cent to children born alive. Child mortality is the most dominant variable that contributes to a children born alive This is in line with the theory of Alberto that said child mortality trigger to have more children. The results also explain that stagnation of fertility can not be separated from slow rate of mortality. Recommendations that developed by this analysis include the strengthening of communication, education, information, especially delayed age at first marriage, age at first birth and age at first sexual intercourse for young women, the lowest wealth quintile, low education through  The Information Center of Adolescent Reproductive Health Councelling; b). Partnership with the Ministry of Health, especially strengthening education and information communication and quality of services mother and child care program concerning the high contribution of child mortality to the children ever born.


Keywords


Fertility;Children born alive;Child mortality;Indonesia

Full Text:

PDF

References


Badan Pusat Statistik [BPS], Badan Koordinasi Keluarga Berencana Nasional [BKKBN], Departemen Kesehatan, & Macro International Inc. [MI].(2003). Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia 2002-2003. Jakarta: BPS dan MI.

Badan Pusat Statistik [BPS], Badan Koordinasi Keluarga Berencana Nasional [BKKBN], Departemen Kesehatan, dan Macro International Inc. [MI]. (2007). Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia 2007. Calverton, Maryland, USA: BPS dan MI.

Badan Pusat Statistik [BPS], Badan Koordinasi Keluarga Berencana Nasional [BKKBN], Kementerian Kesehatan, dan Macro International Inc. [MI]. (2012). Survei Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia 2012. Calverton, Maryland, USA: BPS dan MI.

Badan Pusat Statistik [BPS]. 1971. Sensus Penduduk 1971. Jakarta: BPS.

Becker, G.S.(1976).An Economic Analysis of Fertility. Dalam Becker, GS(eds). The Economic Approach to Human Behaviour. The University of Chicago. 171-194.

Becker, G. S.(198)1. A Treatise on the Family. London, England: Harvard University Press.

Bongaarts.(1978). A Framework for Analyzing the Proximate Determinants of Fertility. Population and Development Review 4(1): 105-132. crossref

Bongaarts dan R.G. Potter. (1983). Fertility, Biology and Behaviour: an Analysis of the Proximate Determinants. New York: Academic Press.

Cardwell, John C. (1983). Direct Economic Costs and Benefit of Children. New York/London: Academic Press.

Davis, K & Blake, J.(1956). Social Structure and Fertility: an Analytical Framework. Economic Development and Cultural Change.Vol.4. No. 3. crossref

Frantz,R.(2007). Renaissance in Behavioral Economics Essay in honor of Harvey Leibenstein. Routledge.

Freedman,R. (1961). The Sociology of Human Fertility: a trend report and bibliography. Current Sociology. Vol 10 (2); 35-68. crossref

Freedman, R. (1979). Theories of Fertility Decline: A Reappraisal. Social Force. Vol 58(1).1-17 crossref

Hastono, S.P. 2001. Analisis Data. Jakarta: Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat, Universitas Indonesia.

Iswarati. 2009. Proximate Determinant Fertilitas di Indonesia. Jakarta: Puslitbang KB dan Kesehatan Reproduksi, BKKBN.

Johnson,K., N. Abderrahim., & S.O. Rutstein. (2011). Changes in Direct and Indirect Determinants of Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa. DHS Analytical Studies 23. Calverton, Maryland, USA:ICF Makro. Retrieved from https://dhsprogram.com/pubs/pdf/AS23/AS23.pdf

Letamo, G., & Letamo, H. (2001). The Role of Proximate Determinants in Fertility Transition: A comparative study of Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Southern African Journal of Demography, 8(1), 29-35. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/20853254

Nerlove, M.(1974). Economic growth and population: Perspective of the new home economics, Agricultural Development Council, Inc, ADC Reprint Series, dikutip dari Robinson & Harbison, Ibid, p.4

Palloni, A., & Rafalimanana, H. (1999). The Effects of Infant Mortality on Fertility Revisited: New Evidence from Latin America. Demography, 36(1), 41-58. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2648133

Robinson, W.C., & Harbison, S.F .(1983). Menuju Teori Fertilitas Terpadu (Toward a unified theory of fertility). Yogyakarta: Pusat Penelitian dan Studi Kependudukan UGM.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.14203/jki.v11i1.65

Copyright (c) 2016 Jurnal Kependudukan Indonesia

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Research Center for Population, Indonesian Institute of Sciences

Widya Graha Building, 7th and 10th floors, Ruang 2127
Jl. Jenderal Gatot Subroto 10 Jakarta Selatan, Telp (021) 5221687
Website: http:/kependudukan.lipi.go.id;
E-Journal: http://ejurnal.kependudukan.lipi.go.id
Pustaka: http://pustaka.kependudukan.lipi.go.id
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------